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Art Laffer weighs in as recession indicator sparks fears

Art Laffer weighs in as recession indicator sparks fears


SINCE 2007, SENDING A POTENTIAL ALARM FOR RECESSION. REAGAN ECONOMIST ART LAFFER. TYPICALLY ON AVERAGE THE STOCK MARKET PEAKS 18 MONTHS AFTER INVERSION. ECONOMY PEAKS 22 MONTHS AFTER INVERY. NOT NECESSARILY RECESSION AFTER THE CORNER. SOME ARE SAYING NOT NECESSARILY WILL BE RECESSION AT ALL THIS TIME?>>I DON’T SEE ANY REASON FOR RECESSION RIGHT NOW UNLESS SOMETHING IN THE FUTURE THAT DEVELOPS QUITE MATERIAL LIKE A TRADE WAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. RIGHT NOW, I DON’T SEE ANY CHANGE IN POLICIES. THE TAX BILL IS WORKING NICELY. MONETARY POLICY A LITTLE SLOW CATCHING UP. THEY SHOULD DROP THE RATE COUPLE, HALF A PERCENT OR SO IF YOU LOOK AT ALL OF THIS. LET ME SAY, TRADE ISSUES ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO THE MARKET, AND MARKET IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT TO THE FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY. JUST THE DROP WE’VE SEEN FROM THE PEAK TO RIGHT NOW, CHARLES IS A LOSS IN U.S. WEALTH OF ABOUT $1.7 TRILLION. WHICH IS A HUGE AMOUNT OF MONEY. IT PUTS INTO PERSPECTIVE ALL OF, THAT IS ONLY 30 BILLION. WE LOST 1.7 TRILLION IN WEALTH BECAUSE OF I BELIEVE FEAR ABOUT THE TRADING MARKET, WHAT IS GOING ON IN CHINA. SO WHEN I LOOK AT THIS WORLD, I DON’T THINK WE’RE IN A RECESSION. I DON’T THINK WE’RE GOING INTO ONE BUT IF THE TRADE THING WERE TO COME AROUND TO BE FOOD, I THINK WE COULD PULL OUT OF THIS VERY QUICKLY. CONNELL: ARE YOU SAYING 30 BILLION JUSTIFIES $1.7 TRILLION IN LOSSES?>>WELL THAT IS WHAT THE NUMBERS ARE. EXTRA 10% ON 300 BILLION IN TRADE WITH CHINA. UNLESS I DID MY MATH WRONG. CHARLES: THAT IS THAT A LEGITIMATE FEAR, CORRELATION THOUGH?>>I THINK ABOUT 1 1/2 TRILLION. CHARLES: RIGHT IS. I LOOK AT WILSHIRE 5000 EVERY DAY. I DO THE MATH MYSELF. I’M SAY SOMETHING THAT LEGITIMATE CORRELATION, ART? SHOULD IT BE DOWN THAT MUCH OR IS THIS AN OVERREACTION?>>I DON’T KNOW DEPENDS WHAT HAPPENS IN THE THE FUTURE WITH THE TRADE DEAL. IF THE TRADE DEAL COMES THROUGH IT IS WAY OVERREACTING. IF THE TRADE DEAL DOESN’T COME THROUGH AND THERE IS TRADE WAR, MAY BE OVERREACTING. YOU LOOK WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE SMOOT-HAWLEY. I DON’T MEAN TO TALK ABOUT SMOOT-HAWLEY. THE MARKET FELL 90%. WHEN I WAS IN WHITE HOUSE 1970 TO 1972, DEVALUATION OF DOLLAR, 10% IMPORT SURCHARGE, JOB DEVELOPMENT CREDIT, EXCLUDED FOREIGN AID, WE HAD PROTECTIONIST ADMINISTRATION, THE STOCK MARKET FELL BY 50%. WHEN YOU LOOK AT IT HISTORICALLY TRADE HAS A HUGE, HUGE NET EFFECT, WAY BEYOND WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE SIZE OF HOW MUCH TRADE THERE IS. IT IS REALLY VERY IMPORTANT TO MARKETS. ONE OF YOUR PREVIOUS GUESTS SAID, IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME FOR THE BOOM TO OCCUR, THAT IS NOT WHAT CAUSES RECESSIONS. RECESSIONS ARE CAUSED BY POLICY ACTIONS. THEY CAN OCCUR IN TAXES, OCCUR IN SPENDING. OCCUR IN REGULATIONS. THEY CAN INCUR BECAUSE OF TRADE POLICY. THAT IS ONLY THING I SEE WE HAVE A BIG ISSUE ABOUT RIGHT NOW. WE’RE WITH CHINA. I WOULD LOVE TO SEE A GREAT FREE TRADE DEAL DONE WITH CHINA THAT WOULD BOOST THE MARKET BY WELL OVER 5,000 POINT, THIS MORNING WE WERE GREETED WITH REALLY POOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT OF GERMANY, POOR ECONOMIC DATA OUT OF CHINA. SO-CALLED GLOBAL RECESSION. THAT IS NOT PLAYING A ROLE AT ALL? EVERY TIME WE GET NUMBERS OUT OF CHINA, IT SENT OUR BOND YIELDS DIVING LOWER AS MONEY CONTINUES TO COME FROM AROUND THE WORLD, POURING INTO OUR 10-YEAR BOND, WHICH MIGHT BE SKEWING HISTORICAL REFERENCE THAT WE USE. MAYBE THIS TIME IS SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT. WE’VE NEVER BEEN IN A WORLD, ART, WITH $17 TRILLION WITH A T, OF NEGATIVE YIELDING RATES AND ALL THESE GLOBAL ECONOMIES GOING DOWN AT SAME TIME EXCEPT AMERICA.>>THE REST OF THE WORLD IS IN RECESSION, THEY’RE IN VERY BAD SHAPE. THAT DOES IMPACT US, CHARLES. YOU’RE COMPLETELY CORRECT. WE’VE BEEN FIGHTING AGAINST IT BECAUSE WE’VE BEEN DOING VERY GOOD POLICIES WHILE THEY HAVE NOT BEEN DOING GOOD POLICIES. WHY WE ARE PERFORMING WELL AND THEY ARE NOT PERFORMING WELL. THEY ARE DRAG US DOWN, THEY ARE DRAG US DOWN WITH INTEREST RATES. WHEN YOU HAVE NEGATIVE INTEREST RATE YIELDS AROUND THE WORLD, HOW CAN U.S. YIELDS BE HIGHER THAN REST OF THE WORLD. OUR POLICIES MADE US VERY RESILIENT. CHARLES: ART, THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WE ALWAYS BRING YOU IN.>>CHARLES, YOU’RE GREAT. IT IS MY BIRTHDAY TODAY. DIDN’T WISH ME HAPPY BIRTHDAY.>>LOOK AMAZING FOR 38.>>I’M GOING INTO MY 80th YEAR. CAN YOU BELIEVE IT. CHARLES: YOU’RE FOR REAL. YOU’RE A GREAT GUEST.

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88 thoughts on “Art Laffer weighs in as recession indicator sparks fears

  1. Recessions and depressions always happens under republicans and democrats gets elected after and clean up their mess they leave

  2. Please stop lying! There will not be any recession!!!! This economy will be booming again in the next 3 months… even higher than before!!!

  3. 1. Manufacturing (red flag) — There has been a sharp deceleration in manufacturing in 2019. Hiring has flatlined after having one of its best years last year since the late 1990s. Output is slowing, and, especially alarming, manufacturing sentiment has tumbled to levels that almost signal a recession.  2. Trucking (yellow to red flag) — Nearly every good sold in the United States touches a truck at some point, which is why trucking shipment data can be revealing. After a stellar 2018, shipments have plunged during the past six months, according to the Cass Freight Index.  3. Business spending (yellow flag) — Business leaders are nervous, according to most metrics of sentiment in the corporate sector. But the question is how is that translating into decision-making? This year evidence is growing that companies are pulling back on investment spending. Just keep hope alive in the leader of U.S. White Nationalist.

  4. This guys has been wrong everytime like in 2007 when he said there wasnt no recession coming and Tax cuts never paid for

  5. “Recessions are caused by policy actions”

    So folks running out of money to spend has -0- to do with it? 😂😂😂

  6. We’re a little over a year away from the Presidential election and the MSM is pushing a recession. What a coincidence!!! I guess we should listen to the Democrats when they say that they’re praying for a recession.

  7. Oh my God the Sky is Falling. Complete joke. We know b4 the 2020 election the God Awful people known as the Democrats will try and ruin the economy. They are truly sick people. Even the RINOs at fox seem gitty about it.

  8. Probably a manufactured fake panic to make people panic, they'd sell their own grandmother to make a buck and you know it. Sad

  9. But Art wouldn't you agree China need the US markets far far more than the US needs China! And that is the major point that seems to be totally missed by these ball less traders on Wall Street.

  10. A TRUE LEADER HAS THE CONFIDENCE TO STAND ALONE
    HE HAS THE COURAGE TO MAKE TOUGH DECISIONS
    THE COMPASSION TO LISTEN TO THE NEEDS OF OTHERS
    HE DOES NOT SET OUT TO BE A LEADER
    BUT BECOMES ONE BY THE EQUALITY OF HIS ACTIONS
    AND THE INTEGRITY OF HIS INTENT.
    THIS IS AMERICA'S CHOSEN PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP !

  11. Average interest rate = 1% profit + .5% for losses + inflation rate. With no inflation interest rate are about where they should be!!

  12. Feds raised rates right after Trump came in knowing that there would be a downturn 18 to 24 months later. Viola.. here we are.

  13. You know I hate when someone is telling me, "it's raining", when they are pissing on my head. We are past a recession, this is a depression. When you are 21 trillion in debt and your dollar is fiat, what the fck is that. Wake ☝!!!

  14. OMG the condiments from china might go up!!! We hat are we going to do ????? Stop buying Chinese products WE DON'T NEED THEM !!!!! WE CAN DO WITHOUT CRAP FROM CHINA

  15. What the hell these news anchors keep interrupting the guests from sharing? Why invite them in the first place if you think you know better?

  16. About the truth. The market manipulators are the globalists in America who have far too much invested in China. Their “Red Wave” that was taking over the world & making them mega bucks, has been knocked flat by President Trump. Trying to crash our stock market won’t kept companies in China. MAGA!

  17. R u kidding me. This guy is clueless. So is the idiot who gave him the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Totally undeserved.

  18. What a joke, Medal of Freedom "economist" Art Laffable who didn't see the housing bubble and still owes Peter Schiff a penny and an apology. The Keynesians at Fox "business" wouldn't know a free market if Trump's $1+ trillion annual national debt hit them over the head.

  19. The Dems and their Bankers will try with the Fed to dispose of Trump by creating a financial crises like they did with Bush.

  20. Wall Street is such a scaredy cat. They hear the sinister fake media lie about a fake recession and right away they freak out.

  21. Laffer doesn't see much of anything. He still owes that penny to Peter Schiff, for loosing the bet last recession. What a Joke

  22. Over reaction. Liberals are doing their best to sway the economy. I am not worried, could be a buying opportunity.

  23. What idiots we have trying to give us advice on the economic woes of the world saying, "All is well." We are over 240 trillion in world debt people!!! At some point we must pay for it whichever way we can.

  24. The important thing FOX is how do we frame the narrative? When the economy is good we give 100% of the credit to Trump. Now things are slowing down we need to make sure that people don't give Trump bad credit for this. Can we retroactively blame Obama or Mexicans?

  25. We are already feeling the recession and it’s going to be huge. 1st China gave up on trusting USA and is moving on to develop its own Smart phone OS. No more deals with farmers and they ain’t coming back to you when you threaten countries what do you expect. And new currency on the way and dollar is collapsing. That’s the truth so no matter how many clowns who defend this system say it’s going to be fine. It won’t, the bubble is too big this time and there aren’t enough bailout money.

  26. Dow Jones lower today than it was 19 months ago. The economy was the only thing Drumpf had going for him, now that's going down the hole too. Bye Bye Donnie.

  27. These guys are dumbasses. We Are in the middle of a trade war, what do you mean if I trade you or develops in the future?? 🙄

  28. This is what denial of your debt market looks like, kids! Leave it to Fox to help bury heads in the sand all They way up to the crash.

  29. I wonder how Trump will blame the Democrats for this one? Trump has to bow to the Chinese, he tried to take on the Chinese alone…he’s a political moron.

  30. Laffer has no CREDITABILITY ,use the internet and you will find him poo! pooing the warnings of the 2008 meltdown from Peter Schiff. So who does FOX ask as their expert the guy who was wrong.

  31. Hi from Britain they are saying if we leave the great EU our finances will crash and it's all the people's fault that voted to leave the EU and Boris Johnson needs to be kicked out of office so you people in America stand firm behind your president and we will stand firm with Boris we need to stand up together and fight GLOBALIST God BLESS

  32. Gee isn't it funny how much the msm likes to cover any drop in the market like it's the end of the world? It's almost like they want a recession to happen. It's almost like they are traitors who want power so much they are willing to hurt average Americans to get it.

  33. I had a dream last night. It was about a stampede of bulls coming over a hill, and then there was a huge number of bears lurking in the woods. Can someone explain this dream?

  34. This Art Laffer clown was saying the same thing in 2007-2008 about how the economy was great and wasn't going into a recession. He was wrong then and he's even more wrong now. Pay Peter Schiff the penny you owe him for the bet you made in 2008 about how the economy wasn't going into a recession clown.

  35. I'm not spooked. I'm doubling down on buying. now is the time.all of you people who attempt to make a profit and fail in stocks, it's because you act impulsively and never realize that now is the time to buy.

  36. I'm voting for Trump…with or without a recession. Dems would only make things FAR worse than whatever they are.

  37. No more Russia, Russia, Russia (cuz it didn't work for Dems). So now it's gonna be non-stop "Recession, Recession, Recession"! from the Dems and the liberal media (which now includes Fox news).

  38. Things ignored by Trump Evangelicals:
    Sexual assault by Trump
    12,000 lies in 2 years
    Friends with dictators
    Trump's white supremacy
    What Evangelicals won't forgive:
    Stock market crash

  39. That's right, start acting like little girls, panic, drop in a ditch and start crying. If we end up worse the the great depression and come out of it debt free, people learn to respect each other again, fantastic. I've never seen people who are supposed to be our representatives act like immature brats to such a degree, it's pathetic and all hell may break loose over left vs right. There won't be any winners when it happens but it's coming very close to an all out civil war. Trump, is merely undoing the mess the sellouts for 20+ years have created.

  40. His first words were “no recession unless a trade war or something happens in the future” Your in a trade war NOW with China…. that’s just too stupid to be stupid.

  41. "MANUFACTURED RECESSION" All thats left for the LEFT after striking out on STORMY, RUSSIA, TAXES, RACIST……………………………….WAY TO PREDICTABLE DEMOCRATS COME ON NOW.

  42. Recessions are manufactured by the "policies" of the Chicago and Austrian Fascist economists like dude up there that engage in wreckage for the profits of a minority. All of these people have been screwing us since the 40's and they need to be put in jail.

  43. Correct Federal reserve has the brakes on should be 1-1.5 % lower everybody's trying to sabotage Trump what is wrong with these elitist?

  44. So, the rest of the world is in recession, yet were told here that the market drop was due to 30B in tariffs that hasn't happened? Yeah, nope.

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